EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value
Quantify the risk-adjusted value of a decision by entering the probability and monetary outcome for up to three scenarios — gains or losses.
%
%
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Probability-weighted average outcome across all scenarios
- 1
Scenario A weighted value
60% × 10.000 = 6000 - 2
Scenario B weighted value
30% × -3000 = -900 - 3
Scenario C weighted value
10% × -8000 = -800 - 4
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
6000 + -900 + -800 = 4300Sum of all probability-weighted outcomes.
Come funziona questo calcolatore?
EMV = Σ (probability × monetary value) for each scenario. Enter probabilities (%) and outcomes for up to three scenarios — gains are positive, losses negative. A positive EMV favours taking the decision; negative does not. The bar chart shows each scenario's weighted contribution to the total.
Formula
How this is calculated
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is a core technique in risk analysis, decision theory and project management. It produces the probability-weighted average outcome of a decision that has several possible results. For each scenario, enter its probability (as a percentage, e.g. 60 %) and the monetary value that results if that scenario occurs — positive for a gain or opportunity, negative for a loss or threat. The calculator converts each percentage to a decimal, multiplies by the value, and sums all three products: EMV = p₁V₁ + p₂V₂ + p₃V₃.
A positive EMV means the decision is expected to be profitable on average across many trials; a negative EMV means it is expected to lose money. EMV is most useful when comparing two mutually exclusive options: the option with the higher EMV is preferable in financial terms. The bar chart shows each scenario's weighted contribution so you can see which outcome drives the overall result.
The three probabilities must not exceed 100 % in total. If the remaining probability (100 % minus the three entered) represents a scenario with zero monetary impact, leave it implied — the calculator handles that correctly. EMV assumes risk neutrality (linear utility), which underweights rare catastrophic losses for risk-averse decision-makers. In high-stakes situations, consider also examining the worst-case (scenario C) value directly.
Domande frequenti
A negative EMV means that on average, probability-adjusted, the decision is expected to lose money. The high-value scenario may still occur, but it is not likely enough to outweigh the expected losses. A negative-EMV decision should generally be avoided unless other non-financial considerations apply.
Not necessarily. If the remaining probability represents a scenario with zero monetary impact (e.g. nothing happens), you can enter probabilities that total less than 100 %. The calculator accepts totals up to 100 % and treats the balance as a zero-value scenario.
Each identified risk is assigned a probability and a cost or schedule impact. The individual EMVs (positive for opportunities, negative for threats) are summed to give the project's total quantitative risk exposure, which informs the management reserve or contingency budget.
Conosciuto anche come
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team. (2026). EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value [Online calculator]. TG we-Calculate. https://we-calculate.com/it/calculator/emv-calculator
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team. "EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value." TG we-Calculate. 2026. https://we-calculate.com/it/calculator/emv-calculator.
TG we-Calculate Editorial Team, "EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value," TG we-Calculate, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://we-calculate.com/it/calculator/emv-calculator
@misc{wecalculate_emv_calculator, title = {EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value}, author = {{TG we-Calculate Editorial Team}}, howpublished = {\url{https://we-calculate.com/it/calculator/emv-calculator}}, year = {2026}, note = {TG we-Calculate} }
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